Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-3, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bell singled to right, Carroll scored and Grichuk scored.11–6
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play11–6
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 311–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul11–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 211–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking11–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 111–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–6
- 8Suárez homered to left center (438 feet).11–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play11–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 311–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 211–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 111–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul11–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–4
- 8Edman singled to center, T. Hernández scored, Smith to third.11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–3
- 8Freeman homered to center (435 feet), Betts scored.10–3
- 8Pitch 11 : Ball In Play10–3
- 8Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball 310–3
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging10–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul10–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 210–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–3
- 8Betts doubled to left, Ohtani scored and Taylor scored.8–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7McCarthy grounded out to pitcher, Guillorme scored, Carroll to second.6–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 7Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to right, Suárez scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML LAD -145 / ARI +120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 49.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -130
- ARI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 4.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +9 | LAD: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +2 Elo | ARI 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 8th of 3036–31 | Road vs home | 39–309th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–69 | 74–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 60–58 | 29–37 |
| Underdog | 8–11 | 45–26 |
| Overs–unders | 74–62–1 | 80–56–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 14–14 ARI in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 28.