Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe KellyPitching1.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suárez homered to left (366 feet), McCarthy scored.10–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 110–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–9
- 9McCarthy singled to center, Pederson scored and Bell scored.10–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–7
- 8Ohtani homered to left center (380 feet).10–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–5
- 7Smith homered to left center (392 feet), Betts scored and T. Hernández scored.9–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking9–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging9–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 29–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 6Muncy scored on Mantiply wild pitch.6–5
- 6Muncy scored on Mantiply wild pitch.6–5
- 3Herrera singled to right, Carroll scored, Newman to third.5–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 3Bell scored on a disengagement violation, Carroll to second on a disengagement violation.5–4
- 3Bell scored on a disengagement violation, Carroll to second on a disengagement violation.5–4
- 2Carroll homered to right (427 feet).5–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 2Freeman grounded out to first, Rojas scored, Ohtani to third.5–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 15–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 2Betts hit sacrifice fly to center, Edman scored, Rojas to third.4–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML LAD -145 / ARI +120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 49.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -130
- ARI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 4.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +6 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +2 Elo | ARI 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3034–30 | Road vs home | 38–287th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–67 | 72–62 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 59–57 | 28–37 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 44–25 |
| Overs–unders | 71–62–1 | 77–56–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 12–13 ARI in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.