Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Edman singled to right, Taylor scored and Lux scored.8–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 18–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 7Carroll hit sacrifice fly to right, Guillorme scored.6–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 5Muncy singled to right, Lux scored.6–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 3Gurriel Jr. homered to left (387 feet).5–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 2Freeman singled to center, Rojas scored, Kiermaier to third.5–4
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 25–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 2Ohtani hit sacrifice fly to center, Muncy scored, Rojas to third.4–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 1Suárez hit sacrifice fly to center, Gurriel Jr. scored.3–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 1Gurriel Jr. doubled to center, McCarthy scored and Pederson scored.3–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 1Carroll homered to center (417 feet).3–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 1Freeman homered to right center (437 feet).3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Betts homered to left center (400 feet).2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML LAD -135 / ARI +115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 51.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -124
- ARI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.0 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −2 | LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +13 Elo | LAD 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3035–30 | Road vs home | 38–298th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–68 | 73–62 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 59–58 | 28–37 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 45–25 |
| Overs–unders | 72–62–1 | 78–56–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 13–13 ARI in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 26.