Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Austin BarnesBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching5.1 IP, 10 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Randal GrichukBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Grichuk singled to left, Barrosa scored, Guillorme to second.3–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–14
- 8Guillorme singled to center, Carroll scored, Barrosa to third.3–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–13
- 7Newman reached on infield single to shortstop, Grichuk scored on error and McCarthy scored on throwing error by shortstop Edman, Newman to second.3–12
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–12
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–12
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–12
- 6Carroll singled to center, Perdomo scored.3–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–10
- 6Barnes singled to right, Edman scored.3–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–9
- 6Kiermaier grounded out to second, Lux scored, Edman to second.2–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–9
- 4Edman grounded out to second, Taylor scored, Lux to third.1–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 3Suárez homered to center (426 feet).0–9
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–9
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–9
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–9
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–9
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 2Grichuk homered to center (427 feet), Carroll scored and Bell scored.0–8
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–8
- 2Bell singled to right, Perdomo scored, Carroll to third.0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Perdomo doubled to left, Herrera scored and Newman scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Herrera singled to center, Suárez scored, Newman to second.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 50%
- ML LAD -110 / ARI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 52.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ARI -100
- LAD -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.8 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −29 | −7 | LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 1.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +16 Elo | ARI 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 7th of 3036–30 | Road vs home | 38–3012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–68 | 73–63 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 60–58 | 28–37 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 45–26 |
| Overs–unders | 73–62–1 | 79–56–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 14–13 ARI in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 27.