Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Will BrennanBatting1-4
- Tanner BibeePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching7.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taylor singled to right, Smith scored.0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 8Muncy homered to center (401 feet).0–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Ohtani homered to right (450 feet).0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Smith singled to center, Betts scored, Muncy to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 60%
- ML CLE +140 / LAD -165
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -149
- CLE +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 4.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +5 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +53 Elo | LAD 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3038–36 | Road vs home | 46–242nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–66 | 71–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 37–42 | 63–59 |
| Underdog | 38–24 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders | 71–68–2 | 76–64–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–3 LAD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.