Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Gavin LuxBatting2-4
- Bobby MillerPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Neto singled to left, Adell scored, Ward to second.1–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–10
- 8Ward singled to center, O'Hoppe scored, Adell to third.1–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 8Adell singled to left, Moniak scored, O'Hoppe to third.1–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 7Pages singled to left, Lux scored, Edman to second.1–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 5Ward homered to left center (399 feet).0–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 2Kavadas homered to right (404 feet).0–6
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–6
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 1Moniak homered to right center (437 feet), Schanuel scored and Rendon scored.0–5
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Rendon singled to center, Neto scored and Ward scored, Schanuel to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Fair odds
- LAD -189
- LAA +189 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.3 – 3.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −6 | LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +101 Elo | LAD 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.827th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 6th of 3038–31 | Road vs home | 29–4228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–69 | 72–66 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 62–58 | 6–24 |
| Underdog | 8–11 | 66–42 |
| Overs–unders | 75–63–1 | 65–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–1 LAA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.