Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Lane ThomasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erik SabrowskiPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 4Betts homered to left center (376 feet).2–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 2Thomas homered to center (389 feet), Fry scored.2–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 1Pages homered to center (432 feet), Rojas scored.0–6
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–6
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–6
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 1Rojas singled to right, Edman scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 1Lux hit sacrifice fly to left, Muncy scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Edman hit a ground rule double, Betts scored and Freeman scored, Muncy to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML CLE +125 / LAD -150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -135
- CLE +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | 0 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Ryan Brasier: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +58 Elo | LAD 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 10th of 3038–35 | Road vs home | 45–242nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–65 | 70–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 37–42 | 62–59 |
| Underdog | 38–23 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders | 70–68–2 | 75–64–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–2 LAD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.