Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Miguel RojasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching2.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Braves- Jorge SolerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Harris II doubled to right, Merrifield scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 22–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 4Edman singled to right, T. Hernández scored.2–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 3Rojas homered to left (420 feet).1–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 2Soler homered to left (393 feet), Merrifield scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 2Urshela homered to left center (416 feet), Arcia scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Olson doubled to right, Soler scored, Ozuna to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 51%
- ML LAD -115 / ATL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 51.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −11 | LAD: Landon Knack: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +12 Elo | LAD 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 7th of 3038–32 | Road vs home | 40–3110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–72 | 69–76 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 65–61 | 48–65 |
| Underdog | 8–11 | 21–11 |
| Overs–unders | 79–65–1 | 52–90–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–4 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.