Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Tommy EdmanBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crow-Armstrong grounded out to second, Busch scored, Hoerner to third.6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 8Hoerner doubled to left, Bellinger scored, Busch to third.5–3
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 35–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8Busch grounded into fielder's choice to second, Suzuki scored on error, Bellinger safe at second on fielding error by second baseman E. Hernández.4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Suzuki singled to center, Happ scored and Swanson scored on throwing error by center fielder Edman, Suzuki to second.3–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Muncy homered to right center (402 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Edman homered to center (388 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Edman homered to left (357 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Paredes scored on error, Crow-Armstrong safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Freeman, Hoerner to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 58%
- ML CHC +130 / LAD -155
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -140
- CHC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.4 – 4.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +4 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +39 Elo | LAD 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 14th of 3036–37 | Road vs home | 47–252nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–72 | 72–71 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–46 | 64–60 |
| Underdog | 49–26 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders | 67–75–1 | 77–65–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 6–5 LAD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.