Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-5, 4 RBI
- Chris SalePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Murphy hit sacrifice fly to center, Olson scored.1–10
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–10
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–10
- 6Olson doubled to right, Merrifield scored, Ozuna scored on error and White scored, Olson safe at third on throwing error by right fielder Betts.1–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–9
- 6Harris II hit sacrifice fly to left, Urshela scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6Merrifield singled to right, Arcia scored, Urshela to third.1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 3Arcia doubled to right, Kelenic scored, Soler scored and Murphy scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 3Betts singled to center, E. Hernández scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Olson doubled to right, Harris II scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML LAD +100 / ATL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 51.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -109
- LAD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.7 – 3.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +16 | LAD: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +13 Elo | ATL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 8th of 3038–33 | Road vs home | 41–317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–73 | 70–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 65–61 | 49–65 |
| Underdog | 8–12 | 21–11 |
| Overs–unders | 79–66–1 | 52–91–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–5 ATL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.