Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- DJ HerzPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Young singled to right, Millas scored, Young thrown out at second.1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7L. García Jr. homered to right (415 feet).1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Lopez homered to left center (397 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Crews scored on error and Tena scored on error, L. García Jr. safe at first on error by pitcher Cabrera.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML MIA +120 / WSH -145
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 55.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- WSH -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.5 – 4.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +9 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: DJ Herz: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +39 Elo | WSH 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 3027–45 | Road vs home | 33–3927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–79 | 79–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–20 | 11–19 |
| Underdog | 65–59 | 68–48 |
| Overs–unders | 81–64–1 | 71–74–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 13–10 WSH in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 23.