Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Valente BellozoPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Jose TenaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yepez homered to left center (382 feet).1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 6Tena homered to center (412 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Ruiz singled to right, Tena scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Gallo homered to right (401 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Lopez singled to left, Bride scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML MIA +120 / WSH -145
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 56.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- WSH -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.0 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | 0 | MIA: Valente Bellozo: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +44 Elo | WSH 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 28th of 3027–46 | Road vs home | 34–3927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–80 | 80–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–20 | 12–19 |
| Underdog | 65–60 | 68–48 |
| Overs–unders | 81–65–1 | 71–75–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 13–11 WSH in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 24.