Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting1-2
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Freeman homered to left (345 feet), Ohtani scored and T. Hernández scored.9–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 39–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 29–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–0
- 7T. Hernández singled to right, Lux scored, Ohtani to second.6–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 7Betts hit sacrifice fly to center, Muncy scored.5–0
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 7Ohtani grounded into fielder's choice to second, Rojas scored, Lux to second, Muncy to third.4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Ohtani grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Rojas scored, Muncy out at second.3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Rojas singled to right, Edman scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Rojas scored on Fried wild pitch.1–0
- 3Rojas scored on Fried wild pitch.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 54%
- ML LAD -130 / ATL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 49.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -119
- ATL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.9 – 3.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −2 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +3 Elo | ATL 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 7th of 3039–34 | Road vs home | 42–327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–74 | 71–77 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 65–61 | 50–66 |
| Underdog | 9–13 | 21–11 |
| Overs–unders | 81–66–1 | 54–91–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 7–6 ATL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.