Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jonah BrideBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adam OllerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hensley grounded out to shortstop, Bride scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 8Wood homered to left center (426 feet).2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Bride homered to left center (401 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Wood homered to center (435 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Ruiz singled to right, L. García Jr. scored, Tena to second.1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4L. García Jr. singled to right, Chaparro scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Burger hit sacrifice fly to center, Pereda scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 62%
- ML MIA +150 / WSH -180
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 55.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- WSH -161
- MIA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.7 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −5 | MIA: Adam Oller: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +41 Elo | WSH 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.725th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 28th of 3027–47 | Road vs home | 35–3926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–81 | 81–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–20 | 13–19 |
| Underdog | 65–61 | 68–48 |
| Overs–unders | 81–66–1 | 71–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 13–12 WSH in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 25.