Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Sam HilliardBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Doyle singled to left, Schunk scored, Tovar to second.5–6
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 35–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 25–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 9Hilliard homered to right center (411 feet), Goodman scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 9Happ singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.5–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 8Doyle hit sacrifice fly to center, Blackmon scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 8Busch hit sacrifice fly to center, Bellinger scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7Toglia homered to left center (426 feet).3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Crow-Armstrong homered to center (438 feet).3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Doyle hit sacrifice fly to center, Schunk scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 4Bellinger homered to right (397 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Suzuki doubled to center, Swanson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML CHC -145 / COL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -130
- COL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.5 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +12 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +65 Elo | CHC 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 3037–39 | Road vs home | 33–3522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–74 | 71–73 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–47 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 50–27 | 69–64 |
| Overs–unders | 70–75–1 | 75–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 7–3 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.