Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting3-4, 2 HR, 7 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Goodman homered to left center (413 feet), McMahon scored, Rodgers scored and Toglia scored.5–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–9
- 8Busch homered to right (453 feet), Bellinger scored and Paredes scored.5–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 35–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 7Tovar homered to right center (402 feet).2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Goodman singled to left, Toglia scored, Goodman to second.2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 2Goodman homered to left (430 feet), Rodgers scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 2Rodgers doubled to left, McMahon scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Bellinger singled to center, Happ scored and Swanson scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML CHC -150 / COL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 63.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- CHC -135
- COL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.6 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +3 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +97 Elo | CHC 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 14th of 3037–38 | Road vs home | 32–3525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–73 | 70–73 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–46 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 50–27 | 68–64 |
| Overs–unders | 69–75–1 | 74–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 7–2 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.