Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hilliard homered to right (434 feet).2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 4Ortiz doubled to left, Frelick scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4McMahon homered to center (407 feet).1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Contreras homered to right center (388 feet), Turang scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Sánchez homered to left center (418 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Adames homered to right (372 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 71%
- ML COL +235 / MIL -290
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 70.4%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -249
- COL +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 5.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +3 | COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +151 Elo | MIL 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 68.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 29th of 3021–52 | Road vs home | 41–284th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–70 | 74–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 32–47 |
| Underdog | 66–61 | 42–18 |
| Overs–unders | 72–66 | 78–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 7–4 MIL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.