Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ortiz reached on infield single to second, Perkins scored on throwing error by second baseman Schunk.3–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Toglia homered to center (428 feet), Tovar scored and McMahon scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Ortiz singled to right, Bauers scored, Perkins to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 67%
- ML COL +195 / MIL -235
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 70.4%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -207
- COL +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −2 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +151 Elo | MIL 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 66.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 29th of 3020–52 | Road vs home | 41–274th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–70 | 74–64 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 32–46 |
| Underdog | 65–61 | 42–18 |
| Overs–unders | 72–65 | 78–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–4 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.