Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-3
- Bradley BlalockPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Parker MeadowsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ibáñez singled to center, Vierling scored and Keith scored.0–11
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–11
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–11
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 30–11
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–11
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–11
- 6Carpenter hit sacrifice fly to center, Greene scored.0–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–9
- 6Vierling singled to center, Meadows scored, Greene to third.0–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–8
- 6Meadows singled to center, Jung scored and Sweeney scored.0–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 2Vierling singled to center, Greene scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Greene tripled to right, Jung scored, Rogers scored and Meadows scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Meadows homered to right (370 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 63%
- ML COL +160 / DET -190
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- DET: Elo 63.5%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -170
- COL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 4.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −2 | COL: Bradley Blalock: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +96 Elo | DET 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 29th of 3022–53 | Road vs home | 34–3419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–71 | 76–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 21–36 |
| Underdog | 67–62 | 55–31 |
| Overs–unders | 72–68 | 74–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–2 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.