Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Brant HurterPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Kyle McCannBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Brady BassoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Meadows hit sacrifice fly to left, Torkelson scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 7Dingler grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Keith scored, Rogers out at second, Torkelson to third.1–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5McCann singled to right, Gelof scored.0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- OAK 50%
- ML DET -110 / OAK -110
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- OAK: Elo 46.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- OAK -100
- DET -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 3.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +4 | DET: Brenan Hanifee: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · OAK: Brady Basso (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | DET +23 Elo | DET 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OAK 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 3036–37 | Road vs home | 36–3721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–67 | 77–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–36 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 53–31 | 68–54 |
| Overs–unders | 73–68 | 68–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–7 OAK in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.