Detroit Tigers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Parker MeadowsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Meadows homered to left (361 feet), Malloy scored, Jung scored and Keith scored.4–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 34–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 2Bogaerts homered to left (357 feet), Cronenworth scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Profar homered to right (411 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 59%
- ML DET +135 / SD -160
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- SD: Elo 59.8%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -145
- DET +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −2 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SD: Martin Perez: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +69 Elo | SD 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 13th of 3035–36 | Road vs home | 39–3111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–66 | 73–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–35 | 35–51 |
| Underdog | 52–31 | 37–17 |
| Overs–unders | 72–67 | 78–62–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–4 SD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.