Detroit Tigers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Tatis Jr. singled to left, Merrill scored, Arraez to second.5–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 5Machado singled to left, Arraez scored and Tatis Jr. scored.5–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 25–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 15–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 4Merrill homered to left center (372 feet), Cronenworth scored and Bogaerts scored.5–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Sweeney homered to right (371 feet), Jung scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul5–0
- 3Keith singled to right, Vierling scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Dingler grounded out to shortstop, Torkelson scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Vierling homered to left (361 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 64%
- ML DET +165 / SD -200
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- SD: Elo 55.9%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -177
- DET +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.1 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −12 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +41 Elo | SD 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 13th of 3035–35 | Road vs home | 38–3113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–66 | 73–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–35 | 35–50 |
| Underdog | 51–31 | 37–17 |
| Overs–unders | 71–67 | 77–62–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–3 SD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.