Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting4-6, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 13Brown singled to right, Bleday scored.6–7
- 13Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–7
- 12Rooker hit sacrifice fly to left, Schuemann scored.6–6
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 12Greene singled to right, Kreidler scored.6–5
- 12Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 12Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 11Brown homered to right (389 feet), Bleday scored.5–5
- 11Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–5
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball 35–5
- 11Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 25–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 11Meadows doubled to left, Rogers scored and Torkelson scored.5–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 10Rooker doubled to left, Allen scored.3–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 10Keith singled to center, Kreidler scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Greene scored on Otanez wild pitch.2–2
- 7Greene scored on Otanez wild pitch.2–2
- 6Cameron singled to right, Rooker scored, Bleday to third.1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Wilson tripled to right, Gelof scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML DET -160 / OAK +135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- DET: Elo 57.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -145
- OAK +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.7 – 2.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −3 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +53 Elo | DET 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 13th of 3036–36 | Road vs home | 35–3722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–66 | 76–64 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–35 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 53–31 | 67–54 |
| Overs–unders | 72–68 | 67–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–6 OAK in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.