Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Trey SweeneyBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ty MaddenPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Keith singled to left, Carpenter scored on error, Keith safe at second on fielding error by left fielder Brown.9–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 39–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 29–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging9–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 8Carpenter doubled to left, Greene scored.8–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 8Greene singled to right, Vierling scored, Greene to second.7–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 8Vierling doubled to center, Meadows scored.6–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 8Meadows doubled to center, Sweeney scored and Torkelson scored.5–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 35–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Gelof singled to right, Langeliers scored, Brown to third.3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Sweeney singled to left, Torkelson scored, McKinstry to second.3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- OAK 51%
- ML DET -105 / OAK -115
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- OAK: Elo 43.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- OAK -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 4.3 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −2 | DET: Beau Brieske: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · OAK: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +47 Elo | DET 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OAK 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 3037–37 | Road vs home | 36–3822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–67 | 77–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–36 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 54–31 | 68–54 |
| Overs–unders | 73–69 | 68–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–7 OAK in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.