Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Sam HilliardBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Hilliard homered to right (381 feet), Toglia scored and Rodgers scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 14–1
- 3Goodman homered to right center (383 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Hoskins singled to left, Contreras scored, Sánchez to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 73%
- ML COL +250 / MIL -310
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 70.1%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -265
- COL +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.7 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +6 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +148 Elo | MIL 70.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 70.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 70.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 3021–53 | Road vs home | 42–284th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–71 | 75–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 33–47 |
| Underdog | 66–62 | 42–18 |
| Overs–unders | 72–67 | 78–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 7–5 MIL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.