Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jordan BeckBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cave hit sacrifice fly to center, Jones scored.4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Stallings doubled to right, Rodgers scored.3–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Blackmon reached on infield single to second, Stallings scored, Goodman to third.2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Torkelson doubled to left, Jung scored and Greene scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 3Beck homered to left center (417 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- DET 72%
- ML COL +240 / DET -300
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- DET: Elo 66.4%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -255
- COL +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.7 – 4.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +11 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +118 Elo | DET 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 70.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3022–55 | Road vs home | 36–3418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–73 | 78–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 23–36 |
| Underdog | 67–64 | 55–31 |
| Overs–unders | 74–68 | 76–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–4 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.