Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Casey MizePitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Doyle singled to left, Tovar scored.4–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 5Tovar doubled to center, Cave scored and Jones scored.3–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 4Greene hit sacrifice fly to center, Rogers scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 2McMahon homered to right (354 feet).1–6
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 1Sweeney homered to right (407 feet), Torkelson scored and Jung scored.0–6
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–6
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 30–6
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–6
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–6
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–6
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 1Torkelson singled to left, Carpenter scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Carpenter tripled to right, Vierling scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Greene homered to right (356 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 64%
- ML COL +165 / DET -200
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- DET: Elo 64.6%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -177
- COL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 4.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −12 | COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +104 Elo | DET 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 29th of 3022–54 | Road vs home | 35–3418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–72 | 77–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 22–36 |
| Underdog | 67–63 | 55–31 |
| Overs–unders | 73–68 | 75–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–3 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.