Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting6-6, 3 HR, 10 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Griffin ConineBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching2.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fortes homered to left (367 feet).20–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play20–4
- 9Muncy singled to center, Feduccia scored, Edman to second.20–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play20–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul20–3
- 9Edman singled to left, E. Hernández scored and Kiermaier scored, Feduccia to third.19–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play19–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul19–3
- 9Ohtani homered to right center (440 feet), Muncy scored and Taylor scored.17–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play17–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 217–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 117–3
- 7Ohtani homered to left (391 feet), Pages scored.14–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play14–3
- 7Lux scored on Baumann wild pitch, Pages to third on wild pitch by Baumann.12–3
- 7Lux scored on Baumann wild pitch, Pages to third on wild pitch by Baumann.12–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 114–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul14–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging14–3
- 7Pages doubled to left, Edman scored and Muncy scored, Lux to third.11–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play11–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul11–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 311–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul11–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 211–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 111–3
- 6Ohtani homered to right center (438 feet), Pages scored.9–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
- 5Conine homered to right center (372 feet), Lopez scored.7–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 3Ohtani doubled to center, Lux scored and Pages scored, Ohtani out stretching at third.7–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging7–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 37–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 27–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 3Taylor hit sacrifice fly to right, Muncy scored, Lux to third.5–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML LAD -205 / MIA +170
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.9%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -181
- MIA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.9 – 3.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +6 | LAD: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +92 Elo | LAD 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 67.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 7th of 3041–35 | Road vs home | 29–4829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–75 | 69–82 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 67–62 | 2–20 |
| Underdog | 9–13 | 67–62 |
| Overs–unders | 84–66–1 | 83–67–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 7–4 MIA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.