Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Jacob StallingsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jeff CriswellPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jones grounded out to first, Toglia scored, Stallings to second, Hilliard to third.6–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 9Crow-Armstrong homered to left (367 feet), Hoerner scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 9Busch homered to right center (468 feet).4–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 7Busch homered to right (438 feet).3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 3Stallings homered to left (419 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Hoerner reached on infield single to shortstop, Paredes scored on error, Busch safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Tovar.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Busch singled to center, Bellinger scored, Busch to second, Paredes to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 55%
- ML CHC -135 / COL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 61.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 6.0 – 5.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −17 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +84 Elo | CHC 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 17th of 3037–40 | Road vs home | 34–3522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–75 | 72–73 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–48 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 50–27 | 70–64 |
| Overs–unders | 71–75–1 | 76–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 7–4 COL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.