Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rodgers singled to right, Tovar scored, McMahon to second.2–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 8McMahon singled to right, Doyle scored, Tovar to second.2–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 8Walker homered to right (376 feet).2–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 7Goodman homered to center (441 feet).1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6Tovar singled to left, Beck scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Doyle hit sacrifice fly to right, Jones scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Suárez grounded out to shortstop, Smith scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Tovar homered to right center (406 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Beck doubled to left, Stallings scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Stallings doubled to left, Toglia scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 55%
- ML ARI -135 / COL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 60.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.5 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +4 | ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +74 Elo | ARI 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–34 | Road vs home | 35–3622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–71 | 73–74 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–42 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 47–29 | 71–65 |
| Overs–unders | 89–60–1 | 76–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 18–6 COL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 24.