Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching3.2 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting4-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Grichuk doubled to left, Guillorme scored.4–14
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–14
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 34–14
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–14
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–14
- 7Suárez homered to left (364 feet).4–13
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–13
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–13
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–13
- 6Walker doubled to left, Carroll scored.4–12
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–12
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–12
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 24–12
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–12
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–12
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–12
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–12
- 5Del Castillo homered to right (376 feet), Bell scored and Suárez scored.4–11
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–11
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–11
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–11
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–11
- 5García doubled to center, Semien scored, Langford to third.4–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–8
- 5Semien reached on infield single to second, Taveras scored.3–8
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–8
- 4Marte homered to left center (398 feet), Suárez scored and Perdomo scored.2–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 4Lowe singled to right, Langford scored, García to second.2–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 60%
- ML TEX +140 / ARI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 56.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -149
- TEX +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.8 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −3 | TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +46 Elo | ARI 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 25th of 3029–41 | Road vs home | 40–318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–85 | 78–67 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–56 | 31–38 |
| Underdog | 32–29 | 47–29 |
| Overs–unders | 67–77–1 | 86–58–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 7–5 ARI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.
- Sep 10TEX 0 @ ARI 6Picked ARI 61%Hit
- May 29ARI 1 @ TEX 6Picked TEX 55%Hit
- May 28ARI 2 @ TEX 4Picked TEX 54%Hit
- Nov 1TEX 5 @ ARI 0PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Miss
- Oct 31TEX 11 @ ARI 7PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Miss
- Oct 30TEX 3 @ ARI 1PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Miss
- Oct 28ARI 9 @ TEX 1PlayoffsPicked TEX 54%Miss
- Oct 27ARI 5 @ TEX 6PlayoffsPicked TEX 54%Hit