Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting3-4, 3 HR, 8 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching3.0 IP, 8 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Diaz doubled to right, Tucker scored.12–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging12–6
- 9Suárez homered to left (389 feet).12–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging12–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 112–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging12–5
- 8McCarthy singled to left, Perdomo scored.11–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–5
- 7Guillorme hit sacrifice fly to left, Suárez scored.10–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 310–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 210–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 110–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–5
- 5Diaz singled to right, Altuve scored, Alvarez to second.9–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–5
- 5Tucker hit sacrifice fly to left, McCormick scored.9–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging9–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 5Altuve singled to center, Gamel scored, McCormick to second.9–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 39–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 29–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 19–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–3
- 5Smith homered to right (393 feet).9–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 29–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML ARI +110 / HOU -130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 53.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −8 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +26 Elo | HOU 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 6th of 3040–33 | Road vs home | 41–297th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–67 | 71–68 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–38 | 44–56 |
| Underdog | 46–29 | 27–12 |
| Overs–unders | 85–57–1 | 59–77–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 0–5 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.