Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Randal GrichukBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tristan BeckPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramos doubled to left, Yastrzemski scored.8–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–7
- 9Walker singled to center, Carroll scored.8–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 8Luciano singled to right, Encarnación scored, Bailey to third.7–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–6
- 8Bailey reached on bunt single to pitcher, Wade Jr. scored, Encarnación to third.7–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–5
- 8Encarnación singled to center, Ramos scored on error, Encarnación to second, Wade Jr. to second, Wade Jr. safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Barrosa.7–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 8Yastrzemski homered to left center (384 feet).7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 6Chapman homered to center (406 feet).7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Grichuk homered to left center (368 feet).7–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 17–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 3Newman singled to center, Grichuk scored and Suárez scored, Del Castillo to second.6–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 2Perdomo singled to center, Barrosa scored on error, Perdomo safe at second on throwing error by center fielder McCray.4–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 1Ramos hit sacrifice fly to right, Yastrzemski scored.3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML ARI -120 / SF +100
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 54.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- SF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 3.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −2 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +32 Elo | ARI 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 4th of 3038–30 | Road vs home | 39–3010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–64 | 67–69 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 29–44 |
| Underdog | 45–27 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders | 81–56–1 | 71–64–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 11–9 SF in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.