Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Kevin NewmanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Altuve homered to left (368 feet).5–11
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–11
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 35–11
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–11
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 25–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–11
- 7Walker reached on infield single to second, Herrera scored, Marte to third.5–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–10
- 6Peña homered to right center (390 feet), Diaz scored and Bregman scored.4–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–10
- 6Bregman reached on infield single to third, Altuve scored, Diaz to second.4–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 6Diaz singled to center, McCormick scored, Altuve to third.4–6
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 6Suárez homered to left center (369 feet).4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 4Bregman walked, McCormick scored, Diaz to second, Alvarez to third.3–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 43–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 33–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 4Alvarez singled to right, Gamel scored, McCormick to second.3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML ARI +125 / HOU -150
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -135
- ARI +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.4 – 4.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −12 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +15 Elo | HOU 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 4th of 3040–32 | Road vs home | 40–297th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–66 | 70–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–38 | 43–56 |
| Underdog | 46–28 | 27–12 |
| Overs–unders | 84–57–1 | 58–77–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 0–4 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.