Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Giants- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Spencer BivensPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wade Jr. singled to center, Conforto scored and Fitzgerald scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 8Carroll reached on infield single to pitcher, Suárez scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 8Herrera grounded out to first, Smith scored, Suárez to third.5–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 35–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 7Wade Jr. homered to right (412 feet), Fitzgerald scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7Bell grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Perdomo scored, Pederson out at second.4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Smith homered to center (420 feet).3–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Suárez homered to left (375 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Bell singled to center, Carroll scored, Perdomo to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 55%
- ML ARI -135 / SF +115
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 54.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -124
- SF +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 3.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −7 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +34 Elo | ARI 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 4th of 3039–30 | Road vs home | 39–3111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–65 | 68–69 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–38 | 29–44 |
| Underdog | 45–27 | 39–25 |
| Overs–unders | 82–56–1 | 72–64–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 12–9 SF in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.