Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting2-5
- Merrill KellyPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bailey hit a ground rule double, Fitzgerald scored.2–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 4Bailey singled to left, Conforto scored and Chapman scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 1McCarthy struck out, Carroll scored, McCarthy to first on passed ball by Bailey, Suárez to second on passed ball by Bailey, Bell to third on passed ball by Bailey.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Bell reached on infield single to shortstop, Perdomo scored on throwing error by shortstop Fitzgerald, Bell to second, Carroll safe at third on error.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 59%
- ML ARI +135 / SF -160
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.4 pts
- SF: Elo 47.7%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -145
- ARI +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.3 – 4.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +10 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Blake Snell: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +16 Elo | ARI 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 4th of 3040–30 | Road vs home | 39–3213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–65 | 68–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–38 | 29–44 |
| Underdog | 45–27 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders | 83–56–1 | 73–64–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 13–9 SF in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 22.