Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4
- Brandon PfaadtPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Alvarez homered to center (420 feet), Dubón scored and Altuve scored.0–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–8
- 6Altuve singled to left, Meyers scored, Dubón to second.0–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 5Alvarez homered to right (407 feet), Dubón scored and Altuve scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Dubón singled to left, Gamel scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 60%
- ML ARI +140 / HOU -170
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 56.2%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -151
- ARI +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.3 – 4.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +18 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +44 Elo | HOU 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 3040–31 | Road vs home | 39–298th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–65 | 69–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–38 | 42–56 |
| Underdog | 46–27 | 27–12 |
| Overs–unders | 83–57–1 | 57–77–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 0–3 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.