Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sam AldegheriPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-4
- Jose UrenaPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6García hit sacrifice fly to left, Langford scored, Jung to second.5–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 25–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 6O'Hoppe homered to left (410 feet), Rendon scored and Moniak scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 3Schanuel singled to center, Kavadas scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Neto grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Drury scored, Ward out at second, Kavadas to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML LAA +120 / TEX -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 61.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TEX -130
- LAA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.0 – 4.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +7 | LAA: Sam Aldegheri: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TEX: Gerson Garabito: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +83 Elo | TEX 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 61.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 27th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3028–40 | Road vs home | 39–3316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–67 | 58–83 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–24 | 26–55 |
| Underdog | 66–43 | 32–28 |
| Overs–unders | 65–74 | 65–75–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 9–11 TEX in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.