Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting3-4
- Jack KochanowiczPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Schanuel grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Ward scored, Neto out at second.1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1García homered to right center (389 feet), Semien scored and Smith scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 63%
- ML LAA +160 / TEX -190
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 59.6%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -170
- LAA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.7 – 4.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +7 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +67 Elo | TEX 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 65.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 27th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3028–39 | Road vs home | 38–3317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–66 | 57–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–24 | 25–55 |
| Underdog | 66–42 | 32–28 |
| Overs–unders | 65–73 | 65–74–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 9–10 TEX in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.