Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Langford doubled to center, Jung scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 7Smith singled to right, Kelly scored and Semien scored, Smith out stretching at second.4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 7Semien singled to center, Duran scored, Kelly to third.4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Moniak singled to center, Schanuel scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 6Schanuel walked, Neto scored on Chafin wild pitch, Schanuel safe at second on throwing error by catcher Heim.3–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball 43–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 33–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Duran doubled to center, Lowe scored on error and Langford scored, Duran safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Neto.2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 1Rendon hit sacrifice fly to right, Neto scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Ward homered to left center (385 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML LAA +125 / TEX -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 55.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -135
- LAA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.9 – 4.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −22 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 1.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +37 Elo | TEX 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3029–40 | Road vs home | 39–3416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–67 | 58–84 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–24 | 26–56 |
| Underdog | 67–43 | 32–28 |
| Overs–unders | 65–75 | 65–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 10–11 TEX in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.