Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Charles LeblancBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan ZeferjahnPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jankowski singled to right, Duran scored on error and Kelly scored on fielding error by right fielder Adams, Jankowski to third.4–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 7Stefanic grounded out to shortstop, Thaiss scored.4–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 4Leblanc homered to left (385 feet), Ward scored and Neto scored.3–5
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 33–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 23–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 13–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 2Semien singled to right, Kelly scored, Jankowski to third.0–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Duran homered to center (414 feet).0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 1Lowe homered to right (409 feet), Smith scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Semien homered to left center (399 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 61%
- ML LAA +145 / TEX -175
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 58.5%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- TEX -156
- LAA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.8 – 4.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +8 | LAA: Caden Dana: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +59 Elo | TEX 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3029–41 | Road vs home | 40–3416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–68 | 59–84 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–24 | 27–56 |
| Underdog | 67–44 | 32–28 |
| Overs–unders | 66–75 | 66–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 10–12 TEX in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.