Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting3-6, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- DL HallPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Suárez singled to right, Marte scored, Walker to second, Carroll to third.10–11
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–11
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 310–11
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 210–11
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 110–11
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–11
- 10Walker hit by pitch, Del Castillo scored, Carroll to second, Marte to third.10–10
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–10
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–10
- 10Del Castillo singled to right, Newman scored.10–9
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–9
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–9
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking10–9
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 110–9
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–9
- 10Chourio tripled to right, Ortiz scored and Turang scored.10–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–8
- 8Suárez hit sacrifice fly to center, Carroll scored.8–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 18–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–8
- 7Grichuk doubled to center, Perdomo scored.8–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 38–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging8–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–7
- 7Perdomo singled to left, Bell scored.8–6
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play8–6
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 28–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 7Frelick singled to center, Bauers scored.8–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 61%
- ML MIL +145 / ARI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 51.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -156
- MIL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.8 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +6 | MIL: DL Hall: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +12 Elo | ARI 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.827th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3044–33 | Road vs home | 41–3312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–67 | 79–69 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–48 | 32–40 |
| Underdog | 45–19 | 47–29 |
| Overs–unders | 80–66 | 88–59–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–6 ARI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.
- Sep 14MIL 15 @ ARI 8Picked ARI 58%Miss
- Sep 13MIL 2 @ ARI 1Picked ARI 53%Miss
- Oct 4ARI 5 @ MIL 2PlayoffsPicked MIL 54%Miss
- Oct 3ARI 6 @ MIL 3PlayoffsPicked MIL 55%Miss
- Jun 21ARI 5 @ MIL 1Picked MIL 51%Miss
- Jun 20ARI 5 @ MIL 7Picked MIL 51%Hit
- Jun 19ARI 9 @ MIL 1Picked MIL 51%Miss
- Apr 12MIL 3 @ ARI 7Picked ARI 52%Hit