Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Garrett MitchellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Yastrzemski homered to right (346 feet).3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Mitchell homered to center (411 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Chapman doubled to left, Ramos scored.2–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Adames singled to left, Contreras scored, Adames out stretching at second, Bauers to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Contreras singled to right, Chourio scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML MIL -115 / SF -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.8 – 3.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −6 | MIL: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Landen Roupp (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +37 Elo | MIL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 4th of 3040–32 | Road vs home | 40–3212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–66 | 70–72 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–48 | 29–45 |
| Underdog | 42–18 | 41–27 |
| Overs–unders | 78–63 | 75–66–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–6 SF in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.