San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mason BlackPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Machado homered to left center (419 feet).1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 6Conforto homered to right (393 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 31–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Machado singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Profar to third.0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 1Machado homered to left center (375 feet).0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Profar flied out to right, Arraez scored on throwing error by shortstop Fitzgerald and Tatis Jr. scored on error.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SD 65%
- ML SF +175 / SD -210
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- SD: Elo 60.7%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -186
- SF +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.1 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +5 | SF: Mason Black: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +76 Elo | SD 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 63.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3029–39 | Road vs home | 39–3213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–71 | 73–69 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–45 | 35–52 |
| Underdog | 39–26 | 37–17 |
| Overs–unders | 73–65–1 | 78–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 9–11 SD in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.