San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer BivensPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bogaerts homered to left (396 feet), Cronenworth scored.7–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking7–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 37–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 7Solano scored on error and Arraez scored on error, Profar safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Fitzgerald, Profar safe at second on error.7–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Merrill scored on Ty. Rogers wild pitch, Arraez to second on wild pitch by Ty. Rogers, Solano to third on wild pitch by Ty. Rogers.7–2
- 7Merrill scored on Ty. Rogers wild pitch, Arraez to second on wild pitch by Ty. Rogers, Solano to third on wild pitch by Ty. Rogers.7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 6Casali homered to left center (403 feet).7–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 5Merrill homered to left (376 feet).6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 4Matos homered to left (370 feet).6–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 4Encarnación homered to left (416 feet), Conforto scored and Fitzgerald scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 4Chapman homered to left center (419 feet), Ramos scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 64%
- ML SF +165 / SD -200
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- SD: Elo 62.0%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -177
- SF +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.6 – 4.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +14 | SF: Spencer Bivens: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +85 Elo | SD 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3030–40 | Road vs home | 40–3313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–72 | 74–70 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 29–45 | 36–53 |
| Underdog | 40–27 | 37–17 |
| Overs–unders | 74–66–1 | 79–64–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 10–12 SD in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.