San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Grant McCrayBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCray homered to right center (425 feet), Bailey scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 5Arraez singled to center, Wade scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4McCray grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Bailey scored, Wisely out at second, Fitzgerald to third.4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 2McCray homered to right (417 feet), Bailey scored and Wisely scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 1Bogaerts grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Profar scored, Machado out at second, Cronenworth to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Machado singled to center, Arraez scored, Cronenworth to second, Profar to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML SF +110 / SD -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- SD: Elo 59.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -119
- SF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.1 – 3.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +1 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +69 Elo | SD 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3029–40 | Road vs home | 40–3212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–72 | 74–69 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–45 | 36–52 |
| Underdog | 39–27 | 37–17 |
| Overs–unders | 73–66–1 | 78–64–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 9–12 SD in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.