Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Giants- Jerar EncarnacionBatting2-4
- Hayden BirdsongPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chourio homered to right (372 feet), Turang scored.3–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 7Adames scored on Doval wild pitch.1–0
- 7Adames scored on Doval wild pitch.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML MIL -135 / SF +115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- SF +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 3.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −9 | MIL: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +39 Elo | MIL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 4th of 3041–33 | Road vs home | 41–3313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–67 | 71–73 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–48 | 30–46 |
| Underdog | 43–19 | 41–27 |
| Overs–unders | 79–64 | 76–67–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–7 SF in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.