Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Garrett MitchellBatting2-3
- Colin ReaPitching4.0 IP, 10 ER, 1 K
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wade Jr. doubled to center, Luciano scored.2–13
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–13
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–13
- 8Luciano doubled to center, Matos scored.2–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–12
- 7Monasterio singled to center, Mitchell scored.2–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–11
- 6Encarnación singled to right, Luciano scored, Wade Jr. to second.1–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–11
- 4Chapman homered to left (400 feet).1–10
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–10
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–10
- 4Yastrzemski doubled to center, Fitzgerald scored, Yastrzemski out stretching at third.1–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–9
- 3Contreras doubled to center, Perkins scored.1–8
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–8
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–8
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 2Yastrzemski homered to right (347 feet), Wisely scored and Fitzgerald scored.0–8
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–8
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 20–8
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–8
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–8
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 2Fitzgerald doubled to center, Bailey scored, Wisely to third.0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 1Encarnación homered to right (353 feet), Wade Jr. scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Wade Jr. singled to right, Ramos scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 53%
- ML MIL +105 / SF -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- SF: Elo 45.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -114
- MIL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.6 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +12 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Blake Snell: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +32 Elo | MIL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 4th of 3041–32 | Road vs home | 40–3313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–66 | 70–73 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–48 | 29–46 |
| Underdog | 43–18 | 41–27 |
| Overs–unders | 78–64 | 75–67–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–6 SF in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.