Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-3
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 4Hoskins homered to left (423 feet), Sánchez scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Carroll scored, Walker to second, Marte to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML MIL +105 / ARI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 50.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- MIL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 4.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −8 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI 0 Elo | ARI 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3042–33 | Road vs home | 41–317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–67 | 79–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 34–48 | 32–38 |
| Underdog | 43–19 | 47–29 |
| Overs–unders | 79–65 | 87–58–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–6 ARI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
- Oct 4ARI 5 @ MIL 2PlayoffsPicked MIL 54%Miss
- Oct 3ARI 6 @ MIL 3PlayoffsPicked MIL 55%Miss
- Jun 21ARI 5 @ MIL 1Picked MIL 51%Miss
- Jun 20ARI 5 @ MIL 7Picked MIL 51%Hit
- Jun 19ARI 9 @ MIL 1Picked MIL 51%Miss
- Apr 12MIL 3 @ ARI 7Picked ARI 52%Hit
- Apr 11MIL 7 @ ARI 1Picked ARI 53%Miss
- Apr 10MIL 0 @ ARI 3Picked ARI 52%Hit