Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting3-3, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Randal GrichukBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yilber DiazPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras homered to right center (414 feet), Ortiz scored.15–8
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play15–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 315–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul15–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging15–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 215–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 115–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul15–8
- 8Perdomo doubled to center, Smith scored and Grichuk scored, Del Castillo to third.13–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play13–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul13–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking13–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 113–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging13–8
- 8Del Castillo singled to left, McCarthy scored, Grichuk to second, Smith to third.13–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 113–6
- 8Grichuk singled to left, Bell scored, Smith to second, McCarthy to third.13–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking13–5
- 7Grichuk homered to left (378 feet), Smith scored.13–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 213–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 113–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging13–4
- 6Bell singled to center, Perdomo scored and Newman scored.13–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play13–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 213–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking13–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul13–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 113–2
- 6Perkins hit sacrifice fly to center, Mitchell scored, Adames to third.13–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play13–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 113–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging13–0
- 4Adames homered to right center (386 feet).12–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–0
- 4Mitchell homered to left center (394 feet), Contreras scored.11–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 58%
- ML MIL +130 / ARI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 50.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -140
- MIL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.9 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −7 | MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +1 Elo | ARI 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 4th of 3043–33 | Road vs home | 41–329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–67 | 79–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–48 | 32–39 |
| Underdog | 44–19 | 47–29 |
| Overs–unders | 79–66 | 87–59–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–6 ARI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.
- Sep 13MIL 2 @ ARI 1Picked ARI 53%Miss
- Oct 4ARI 5 @ MIL 2PlayoffsPicked MIL 54%Miss
- Oct 3ARI 6 @ MIL 3PlayoffsPicked MIL 55%Miss
- Jun 21ARI 5 @ MIL 1Picked MIL 51%Miss
- Jun 20ARI 5 @ MIL 7Picked MIL 51%Hit
- Jun 19ARI 9 @ MIL 1Picked MIL 51%Miss
- Apr 12MIL 3 @ ARI 7Picked ARI 52%Hit
- Apr 11MIL 7 @ ARI 1Picked ARI 53%Miss